Muammar al Gaddafi at the AU Summit photo credit: wikimedia
In an age characterized by deficits, a number of the most important are occurring within the Middle East and North Africa. Truly, the historic revolutions occurring in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are of enormous importance to the future of the entire region. It has sparked a wave of democratic momentum that has swept, to some degree, the entire region. For a region caught within the thralls of monumental political movements from democratic capitalism; to communist socialism; to brutal dictatorship, Pan-Arabism and extremist Islam, it has been the voice of the people themselves; those nameless victims, that has been continually suppressed. These revolutions mark a historical precedent, an opportunity for the people to begin the long and arduous process of mending the social fabric torn apart through violence, corruption and mistrust. However, to say that the fight has been all but won would be a gross miscalculation. In fact, as the embattled rulers of these nations begin to vacate their positions of power and privilege, a new battle begins. Their departure causes a gaping hole in the geopolitics of, not only the region, but the entire international structure; one that many parties are anxious to capitalize on.
Of immediate concern should be the intentions of the National Transitional Council, a largely unknown entity with no governing experience. One characteristic of the Libyan revolution has been its swift and pervasive use of violence as the preferred means for usurping its entrenched leader. Regardless of the necessity of such violence, the true test will come when this liberating consortium finds itself at the helm of a nation, with the vast amounts of power, authority and responsibility for guiding a new Libyan Republic at its finger tips. They will have to act quickly and efficiently if they are to develop a peaceful transition towards a more equitable future. The council will have to contend with the immediate needs of providing wages, medical supplies and utilities to an ailing population. Furthermore, the future stability of this transition involves no less than the establishment of the rule of law and the drafting of a constitution; democratic institutions for public participation and free elections; an independent judiciary; and, in time, a thriving civil society in a state that has had no such experience in its recent history (it is of worth mentioning, however, that these conditions are all laid out as objectives in the NTC?s official declaration). ?Presently, it is unclear whether the NTC is capable of bringing about the change that Libya so desperately needs. Although the peripheral powers, known as the ?Friends of Libya,? have placed their political and economic backing behind the NTC, the African Union, along with the People?s Republic of China, have yet to officially recognize the group. This stance may be due in large part to Gaddafi?s lingering political and economic influence, but these governing bodies remain pessimistic about the NTC?s ability to rule and their future diplomatic role on the regional and international stage. The stakes could not be higher, any less than a complete transition and we may observe the fragmenting of a group and the dissolution of a state into military control and/or further civil war. As a revolutionary group, the NTC has served its purpose of bringing Gaddafi?s reign to an end. However, the monumental task of transitioning to a democratic state is an entirely different matter.
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How the NTC collects and redistributes the funds necessary for stabilising Libya largely remains the task of a United Nations and NATO backed group of peripheral powers, of which the three main actors are: The United States, Great Britain and Germany, holding approximately $37bn, $20bn, and $10bn of frozen Libyan assets respectively (with France playing a prominent diplomatic role). NATO is also exploring a future role in the stabilising effort (english.aljazeera.net). So what will result from economic, military and diplomatic intervention from the West? Aside from the economic benefits resulting from the influx of funds, the Western world has the ability to offer vast amounts of expertise in crucial democratic areas. The NTC would do well to draw on these resources in its rebuilding effort. However, one must only recount past records of economic transfer and political influence by wealthy Western states in both Africa and the Middle East for which alarm bells begin to ring. To say that the Western states? interest in the rebuild of Libya comes from an entirely apolitical stance based on good will as international citizens would be na?ve. It is important to remember that many Western states have had dubious records pertaining to their support for repressive rulers around the world and have many times in the past been more than willing to negotiate politically with Gaddafi in spite of his appalling human rights record. Although peripheral support in aiding democratic transition is a strong component to the West?s mandate and certainly a one that the United Nations should do all it can to nurture and protect, the economic incentives for the Western states in an nation that has an estimated 46 billion barrels of oil reserves and produces 1.6 million barrels daily, not to mention the vast reconstruction opportunities, is far too great to be ignored. In fact, media reports are doing little to hide these intentions. Reuters, The Economist, The Independent and many more have all openly reported on the frantic rush Western businesses are in to capitalise on the newly minted economic opportunities available to them, sending waves of trade missions to meet with the NTC. There is also the issue raised by the decisions Russia, China and Brazil have made to abstain from taking part in the regime change and how it will affect their position in the rebuild and their relations with the NTC. Thus is the result of newly liberated states. The net of economic and political influence slowly tightens and the feeding frenzy begins.
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At this point, the direction of the new Libyan state, its implications on the region and the prospects for a new wave of democratic revolution around the world are ambiguous at best. It is of interest to a great number of parties which way it will proceed but one can only hope that the majority of the great opportunities at hand can find their way to the benefit of the Libyan people themselves. In the great struggle for political and economic control on the international stage, those who sacrificed so much for this revolution, whom have the most at stake, should always be kept in the forefront of the transitional efforts.
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